Not long ago I wrote a long post dissecting Andrea Den Boer and Valerie Hudson’s case for the looming dangers to democracy and stability posed by China’s surplus men, currently somewhere around 18 million and expected to reach 30 million by 2020. Among my criticisms was that Den Boer and Hudson simply take a head count of men and women in China and take the difference to determine the number of surplus men, without taking into account other factors such as the number of prostitutes decreasing, at least temporarily, the bride supply and limiting the “bare branches” effect.
Homosexuality was another factor that didn’t come up in Den Boer and Hudson’s paper, and now from China Matters comes news that China has an estimated 30 million homosexuals. A little digging around uncovered this article from 2005 stating the 2001 census counted 20 million gay men and 10 million lesbians. That means 10 million fewer guys competing for brides, making the surplus male population right now a mere 8 million. And that’s not even counting the closeted gay guys who are married.
If these numbers hold steady (and it seems they have for at least six years), then we can expect a gay-adjusted surplus of 20 million in 2020, not 30 million. That Den Boer and Hudson’s study didn’t even count gay men shows another weakness in their argument. Their hypothesis was that unmarried men, not simply those getting regular booty, are prone to be more violent, apparently regardless of sexual orientation. Perhaps a gay marriage law is in order to prevent roving bands of dangerous gay men?
My god… What are the bachelors going to do…
Did you know that the worldwide male / female birth ratio is 106 : 100 I’ve seen different figures for this, it might actually be higher but it’s at least that.
Where does this 30 million extra men in China estimate come from?
with a 106:100 birth pattern and a population of well over a billion (let’s make it a billion for simplicity) I come up with around 60 million exra men. Consider an estimate of 12-14 million surplus men here in the US from the disproportionate birth rate and with a population in China 4-5 times the size of the US the 60 million extra Chinese men should be about right. That’s just from normal birth patterns!
Now consider female infanticide and sex selection abortion in China that has skewed the birth rate even further – How many surplus men does China really have? 100 million? 120 million…more?
Also consider India which has always had a skewed birthrate due to female infanticide and now has an epidemic of pre birth ultrasound which results in female fetuses being aborted. How many surplus men does India have (with an even higher population than China now)? Almost scary to consider the two most populous nations in the world are committing a genocide toward women that is on a scale so vast.
I don’t think there are enough gay men in China to even begin to compensate for the sheer numbers of surplus males, though maybe a lot of men will become gay (or at least engage in gay behavior) because they simply have no other option.
Here in the good ol US of A consider that lesbianism is on the increase. This was addressed in a Reuters article that found that around 15 – 20% of young women (not older women) claim to be lesbian or bisexual, this is a dramatic increase from statistics from 20 years ago that showed only around 2-3% of women made similar claims. I’m not sure how many of these women are actually gay or bi, it is quite fashionable now for straight women to claim they are “into other” women even when they are not and I suspect the 15-20% number might be reduced somewhat if women were being totally honest, however it is clear that there has been a significant increase in homsexuality in women. With the commodification of lesbianism going worldwide I wouldn’t be surprised if we found a corresponding increase in lesianism in countries like China and India. A tough single scene for men ain’t gonna get any easier.
In the US there has been no increase in young men claiming to be bi or gay. The numbers are virtually the same as they were 20 years ago. Interesting. Any theories as to why? The media is pushing lesbianism very heavily, male homosexuality has not been commodified and marketed the same way lesbianism has but I don’t think too many men would become gay if it was. Why is it affecting women? Gee, I thought they were born that way.
Very soon those young males in China and India will be searching for wives, I would suspect with their growing economies and money it brings in these men will be searching over the borders of their countries. Maybe we should modify our immigration policies and not allow any single males from countries that practice female abortion. I’d be all for it.
The above comment is from a different jerry than the Jerry from the top post – Don’t want any confusion.
uh, yeah Jerry, that’s what I said in the post.
Using your simplified math, there are still 20 million surplus males.
30m (est) – (20m (HSXL) + 10m (LSBN)) = 20 m surplus males
Lesbians cancel the 10 million of the 20 million homosexual consequence