Author: davesgonechina

I’ve previously written about my doubts about the “bare branches” theory, which argues that a growing surplus of bachelors in China are a threat to social stability. The study by Andrea Den Boer and Valerie Hudson argued:

1. China has a growing surplus of men who will not find marriage partners due to imbalanced sex ratios that will hit 30 million by 2020,
2. these men are testosterone powered violence machines,
3. an increase in their personal violence can increase the likelihood of war,
4. they must be destroyed or exiled, namely by authoritarianism and war.

Now there’s a nifty interactive map on singles in major American cities. There’s huge surplus of single young men in nearly every American city. Den Boer and Hudson argued that the difference between a single man and a bare branch is that a bare branch has no prospects of marriage, while a single man does. Actually, this would really hinge on perception, and that brings up another criticism of their theory of China. What if China’s bare branches are just ignorantly optimistic? As long as they think they can get married one day, would they be less prone to violence? On the flip side, America may be facing a wave of cynical, sarcastic 20-somethings in the U.S. who believe they will never get married, and decide to overthrow the government. We still don’t know if they have any decent education or money, after all.

Moreover, these single men in America are still subject to higher levels of testosterone according to Den Boer and Hudson’s argument, and must be fueling crime in these cities. I don’t disagree that young men are disproportionate responsible for violent crime – however, they also argue this increases the chance of an international conflict. Mexico is being threatened by waves of unmarried men in LA, apparently, and Cuba might be assaulted by an ambitious horde of Spring Break sea pirates. Clearly, the U.S. must invade Iran to purge the nation of these uncontrollable young hooligans. Or start a government initiative to wed them to legions of cougars.

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My previous and more serious criticisms of the “bare branches” theory were:

1. The study doesn’t address the fact that the current surplus of 14-18 million men shows no correlation to increased violence or instability, and they didn’t even examine the current surplus,
2. the authors ignore that the very literature they cite argues that high testosterone does not necessarily correlate to violence or lower social status,
3. they give no evidence why this supposed inclination towards internal violence would translate into a greater chance of international conflict,
4. their historical example in China, the Nien Rebellion, does not account for huge societal changes, such as the lack of abandoned 5th string sons,
5. they dismiss that government, familial or other societal obligations might mitigate this alleged propensity to violence,
6. they misread other literature they cited which in fact makes a case that the growing ratio of older to younger men in China would, in fact, decrease the chances of violence,
7. they do not address contributing factors such as prostitution or a surplus of 10 million gay males (after subtracting lesbians).

In a press conference today, the Ministry of Public Security released its second list of most wanted terrorists for plotting attacks on the Olympics and generally working towards separatism in “restive”* Xinjiang. The first list was released December 15, 2003, and included Hasan Mahsum, who had been shot dead by Pakistani forces two months earlier – the delay may have been because of DNA testing.

The first list included: Hasan Mahsum (ETIM, deceased), Mamtimin Hazrat (ETLO), Dolqun Isa (Uyghur Youth Congress), Abudujelil Karikax (ET Information Center, UYC), Abudukadir Uapqan (ETIM), Abudumijit Mamatkrim (ETIM), Abdulla Kariaji (ETIM), Ablimit Tursun (World Uyghur Congress), Hudabardiy Haxerbak (ETLO), Yasan Mammat and Atahan Abduheni. The addition of the WUC and UYC were received rather skeptically, especially since the list said these groups were working with ETIM. Most of the crimes they were accused of were general charges of recruitment, funding and bombmaking, and specific charges of gun violence and robberies.

So who’s new? This time the second list (English here) goes all out on details: aliases, nicknames, birthdays, education level (one university, 2 vocational, 1 high school, 2 junior high and 2 primary school level – not Mohammed Atta stuff), and ID and passport numbers, which seems awfully pointless but police paperwork is what it is. Moreover, while the previous list did include, in some versions, what appears to be Latin-based spellings of their names, the current list is only available with pinyin versions of their Chinese phoneticized names. Also, places are consistently referred to as “a Middle Eastern country”, “a South Asia country”, “Middle East and West Asian countries”, “a south Asian nation”, etc. etc. – never the name of Pakistan, Afghanistan, or where ever else it is they’re referring to.

• Memetiming Memeti: Alleged to be the new CEO of ETIM, replacing Mahsum in 2003. He is said to have released a video “on the world’s largest video sharing website” in June 2008, but I can’t find any record of a YouTube video with any of his names or aliases. In fact, reports of videos on YouTube began in July. Moreover, there is no mention of the videos released in August, or Abdullah Mansour who appeared in it. Searches for Chinese and English translations of his alleged quotes (“要把2008年变成中国的哀悼年”, “turn the year 2008 into China’s year of condolence”), mainly turn up this list and references to an August 7 Caijing Online article that says a video was released on YouTube June 26/27 and states they want to make it a year of condolence, but not as a direct quote. The video is not included in IntelCenter’s DVD of TIP’s greatest hits, the YouTube account for TIP was deleted, and there’s no English record of such a video. Also, it is always referred to as being posted on June 26-27; why the ambiguity?
  

• Emeti Yakuf: alias Seyfullah, Memetiming’s lieutenant, apparently. He is also said to have released a video in June, and his alias does match the name of the man in a video released in July by the “Turkestan Islamic Party”. In fact, the  The wanted list does not mention the TIP, but instead says that these men all belong to ETIM – a confusion of organizational names and movements the Chinese government has produced for quite a while. Interestingly enough, neither man is accused of conducting the bus bombings they claimed responsibility for in the video, which the Chinese government previously denied.

• Memeti Tursun Yiming: Logistics and fundraising. Organized “more than 10” (but less than 30? Are they bigger than a breadbox?) terrorists to infiltrate China and launch attacks in early 2008.

• Memeti Tursun Abuduhalike: ETIM’s Webmonkey. He apparently “made video footage of terrorist attacks against the Beijing Olympics for Memetiming Memeti and Emeti Yakuf, and broadcast them on a major video-sharing website.” Sorry, that’s Xinhua’s bad translation, they made videos of terrorist threats. Not attacks.
  

• Xiamisidingaihemaiti Abudumijiti: Sent to “a Middle East country, where he preached separatism and extremism among local Chinese (当地中国人)”. Either he’s a really convincing guy, or by “Chinese” they mean “Uyghurs”. He planned to blow up a Beijing supermarket before the Olympics.
  

• Aikemilai Wumaierjiang: Assisted in supermarket plot.

• Yakuf Memeti: Planned to sneak into China via a South Asian country to attack during the Olympics, but apparently got distracted by a plan to attack an oil refinery in said South Asian country, which also failed “due to strict security”.

• Tursun Toheti: Saw the video in a West Asian country and wanted to join. Asked for explosive formulas and plans, made and tested explosive to attack the Olympics. Obviously, something came up.

The PSB is clearly attempting to issue more information on their suspects than in the past. Now if they could just focus on issuing it more clearly and distinctly.

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*There is apparently a style guide out there on writing about Xinjiang in the Western press, and the word “restive” is the default adjective for the province. I’m starting to think its a spellcheck feature.

UPDATED BELOW*

Two quotes. Which one is from the Beijing Olympics, and which is from a Sarah Palin rally? Number 1:

When reporters tried to leave the designated press area and head toward the bleachers where the crowd was seated, an escort would dart out of nowhere and confront him or her and say, “Can I help you?” and turn the person around. When one reporter asked an escort, who would not give her name, why the press wasn’t allowed to mingle, she said that in the past, negative things had been written.

#2:

One volunteer said that in addition to biological and chemical weapons attacks and bombings, volunteers were told to guard against journalists, so they say that their job is to “prevent drugs, prevent bombs, and prevent journalists.” … from the point of view of the organizers and decision makers, the media is an imaginary enemy with a full body of poison.

Andrew Sullivan keeps comparing Palin to Putin. But when was the last time there was public event of international significance in Russia for them to even try to dismiss journalists from? This lazy shorthanding of Russia and the Soviets for anything vaguely authoritarian has got to stop. It’s very important to distinguish between your different flavors of authoritarianism, otherwise you’re just flailing your arms. Know thy taxonomy.

* From Dana Milbank at the Washington Post:

I wasn’t at the Scranton event, but I have to say the Secret Service is in dangerous territory here. In cooperation with the Palin campaign, they’ve started preventing reporters from leaving the press section to interview people in the crowd. This is a serious violation of their duty — protecting the protectee — and gets into assisting with the political aspirations of the candidate. It also often makes it impossible for reporters to get into the crowd to question the people who say vulgar things. So they prevent reporters from getting near the people doing the shouting, then claim it’s unfounded because the reporters can’t get close enough to identify the person.

The Secret Service? Just making the case for my analogy all the better, are we?

YouTube tells me this video is not available in China. WTF? Proxy not required here.

This blog has been dormant for a good bit as I ran around the planet and started some new things. Hopefully some time soon I’ll get around here more regularly and this place will start reflecting some of those changes, or I’ll at least write some horribly belated Olympics post mortem. In the mean time, pay bloody attention to the video. And think about the fact that HIV went from being a lurking pest at the end of the 19th Century to a fairly efficient baby killer in the middle of the 20th Century and then, well, the flippin’ band played on, didn’t it?

But this one is even worse, because we’re building a multiple drug resistant monster ourselves through too poorly or too little administered antibiotics. The lack of proper healthcare or available drugs, along with the fact that we never hear about MDR-TB or XDR-TB, are all due to the same reason: it’s killing poor people. Oh, shame that – but hey, talking about OJ is apparently still more fun.

Coming Events: October 15th. Blog Action Day on Poverty 2008.

Let the Internet Archive be my witness that I scooped the Olympic Security English story 2 years ago. Let it also be my witness that I’ve had this book on my shelf for two years and was too dumb to shop a story on it for a quick buck. I would like to point out that the book was published in 2002, and is by no means a recent addition to the Olympic campaign, nor a particularly good English textbook. Also, no one has gotten the REAL scoop: ordering the 2 audiotapes that apparently accompany the book and transferring some of these to MP3. Who doesn’t want to hear PSB officers reciting things like “I’m Enzaji Leer. I’m an Indian cook and I make pan cake here.”

Chapter One: Everyday English

第一章 日常用语

Lesson 3: Warnings

第3课 劝告

Dialogue 4: How to Stop Illegal News Coverage

会话4 制止非法采访

P: Excuse me, sir. Stop, please.

警：对不起, 先生, 请停下来.

F: Why?

外：为什么？

P: Are you gathering news here?

警：你是在采访吧？

F: Yes.

外：是的。

P: About what?

警：在采访什么问题？

F: About F*lung*ng.

外： 关于***的事情。

P: Show me your press card and reporter’s permit.

警：请出示记者证和采访许可证。

F: Here you are.

外：请看，在这儿。

P: What news are you permitted to cover?

警：你的采访范围是什么？

F: The Olympic Games.

外：奥运会比赛。

P: But F*lung*ng has nothing to do with the games.

警：但***与奥运会比赛无关。

F: What does that matter?

外：这有什么关系？

P: It’s beyond the permit.

警：这超出了采访范围。

F: What permit?

外：什么范围？

P: You’re a sports reporter. You should only cover the games.

警：你是体育新闻记者， 采访范围是奥运会比赛。

F: But I’m interested in F*lung*ng.

外：但是我对***很感兴趣。

P: It’s beyond the limit of your coverage and illegal. As a foreign reporter in China, you should obey China law and do nothing against your status.

警：可是这与你的采访范围不符，属于非法采访。请你遵守我国法律， 不得从事与身份不符的活动。

F: Oh, I see. May I go now?

外：知道了。我可以走了吗？

P: No. Come with us (to the Administration Division of Entry and Exit of Beijing Municipal Public Security Bureau).

警：不能。请跟我们（到北京市公安局出人境管理处）走一趟.

F: What for?

外：去干什么？

P: To clear up this matter.

警：把事情弄清楚。

FIN

This has been a selection from Olympic Security English, by Wang Sheng An (王生安), Associate Professor at the People’s University of Public Security

Interview with Wang Shengan on his research of Athens 2004 Olympic security (Chinese)

“If our existing regulations and practice conflict with Olympic norms and our promise, we will make changes to conform with International Olympic Committee’s requirements and Games norms,” Jiang Xiaoyu, executive vice president of the Beijing 2008 Organizing Committee (BOCOG), said at a press conference. Jiang said that the commitment applied to journalists accredited by the International Olympic Committee (IOC) to cover the Games and those without accreditation as well.

“But all the reporters will have to abide by China’s laws,” he said. China Daily, August 8, 2006

Foreign journalists and their Chinese assistants repeatedly end up at the police station when they report on delicate topics such as pollution, AIDS or farmers’ protests. Often they’re forced to state the names of their sources, in addition to handing over their notes and photographs… Beijing justifies itself by reference to articles 14 and 15 of the Chinese Foreign Ministry’s rulebook for foreign correspondents, which prohibit journalists from researching an issue without registering with the appropriate authority and getting permission. Such a rule contradicts the norms expected from countries that host the Olympic games, according to the FCCC. Der Spiegel, August 9, 2006

Radovan Karadžić has been arrested in Belgrade, where he has been hiding right under everyones noses under an assumed identity of a mystic healer. On the official Serbian/English website of his alter ego, Dr. Dragan Dabic, he claims he once “settled in China where he specialized in alternative medicine, with a special emphasis on the mind-body control, meditation, Yoga, spiritual cleansing, as well as Chinese herbs.” He also lists his favorite ten Chinese proverbs. Fittingly, the last one is “the one who gives up his own should dig two graves”, considering his crimes and motives.

Karadžić was Supreme Commander of Bosnian Serb forces during the war in the Balkans, and is accused of war crimes, including the siege of Sarajevo and the Srebrenica massacre. I actually followed the Balkans long before I was interested in China. In 1993, I learned the dying art of microfiche putting together a paper on the war, and came to pretty depressing conclusions about attitudes on all sides. The same year I attended the World Conference on Human Rights in Vienna, where former Yugoslavian activists were handing out wanted posters for Karadžić long before the real wanted posters started appearing across Serbia. In 2005, I finally got to visit Croatia, Bosnia and Serbia.

Continue reading “Radovan Karadžić, The Balkans & China”

The Jamestown Foundation has a China Brief titled “The Evolution of Espionage: Beijing’s Red Spider Web”, another go at the diabolical machinations of Fu Manchu’s vast network of spies. Jamestown adds a caveat to this brief noting: “Although this article has no indigenous sources we felt that it was important enough article to be published in China Brief and wanted to share this analysis with our readers.” I’m still not sure why, since it provides no new information, is authored by someone without background in China issues, and gets more than a couple of things wrong.

Continue reading “A Spider Web of Fox Armpits Steals U.S. Military’s Secret Sand”

The New York Times has a rather breathless and exciting account of how a “Phone Call From China Transformed ’84 Olympic Games”. It relates the tale of how the head of the Los Angeles Olympic Organizing Committee believes China “saved the Olympics”, both for LA and subsequent cities, when they confirmed on May 12th, 1984 that they would come to the LA Games in defiance of a Soviet-led boycott. The Soviets issued a list four days prior of 100 countries that supposedly agreed to the boycott, one of which was China. Considering only 14 countries eventually joined, I think its safe to say the Soviets were full of crap. The article gives the impression that somehow the Chinese had to be vigorously lobbied or were taking some major political risk. That’s kinda hard to swallow, considering what the New York Times keeps in their own archives.

Time Magazine, April 30, 1984 ushering in a quarter century of “Changing China” cliches

China was a few years into the “Four Modernizations”, and that year the PRC would reform SOEs and COEs, starting a wave of double-digit GDP growth. Meanwhile the USSR was still flailing away at a central economy that didn’t really go anywhere. The L.A. Olympics were the first commercially financed Olympics ever, eventually netting a $250 million dollar surplus. Between that and the Soviet Friendship Games, its pretty clear which was Deng Xiaoping’s kind of sporting event.

Just four weeks prior to the phone call, Ronald Reagan had been welcomed to China with a 21 gun salute and guys drinking Coca Cola. The USSR responded by accusing China of openly supporting Reagan’s “militarist course” and “provocative anti-Soviet orientation”, and then cancelling the highest level talks in 15 years. The Sino-Soviet split had been going on for years, and China in the 1980s was aiding the United States’ proxies against the Soviet Union in at least two conflicts: namely the Mujahadeen in Afghanistan and the Contras in Nicaragua. The conflict in Afghanistan, by the way, was the official reason why China boycotted the 1980 Moscow Olympics, which probably would have been their first Olympics since the Taiwan/Taipei problem had been resolved, had it not been for the unfortunate fact that Moscow was in the Soviet Union. Deng Xiaoping, later that October, said that Sino-Soviet relations were still going nowhere (apart from trade), due to “three big obstacles”: Soviet troops in Afghanistan, support for Vietnam in Cambodia, and all those SS-20 nuclear missiles along the border. The thaw didn’t really happen until Gorby, and ever since the two countries still kinda dislike each other on a more personal level. It’s hard to imagine that the L.A. Olympic committee’s eleventh hour trip to Beijing was anything more than a junket. But hey, that’s what organizing the Olympics is all about.

I’m @ Hong Kong University for the China Internet Research Conference, and I’ll be liveblogging about the panels on the official blog along with John Kennedy, Oiwan Lam and others. I’ll also be on Twitter, if it behaves, along with all these other people (if you’re attending and your twitter feed isn’t in this mashup megafeed, let me know. Will be on the lookout for chatter on Summize and Twifan).

From Lian Yue’s Blog:

From Wang Xiaoshan’s:

Regular blogging will commence soon.